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📷 Ripple Could See Major Breakthrough: Legal Expert Estimates 70% Chance Judge Approves Relief for XRP
Key Takeaways:
– Legal expert Bill Morgan believes the Ripple vs. SEC lawsuit is unlikely to extend into 2026—unless Judge Analisa Torres rejects the current joint motion.
– He considers such a rejection highly unlikely, suggesting a resolution may be within reach.
Ripple’s legal battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may be nearing its end, according to pro-XRP attorney Bill Morgan. He addressed concerns that the lawsuit could drag on until 2026, dismissing that as an improbable scenario—unless Judge Analisa Torres were to deny the joint motion recently submitted by both Ripple and the SEC.
In response to an X (formerly Twitter) user who speculated about a prolonged timeline, Morgan clarified:
“This isn’t really a possibility unless Judge Torres rejects the latest joint motion. If that happens, it could derail the common-sense path forward—accepting the existing summary judgment, civil penalty, and permanent injunction—leading both sides to pursue appeals instead of settling.”
Background: SEC vs. Ripple Developments
The long-running legal dispute saw a turning point in June 2023, when Judge Torres ruled that XRP sales to retail investors did not violate U.S. securities laws. However, she found that XRP sales made to institutional investors did meet the criteria of a securities offering.
Then, in August 2024, Ripple was hit with a $125 million civil penalty. The SEC contested the ruling and filed an appeal, but Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse confirmed in March 2025 that the regulator had withdrawn its appeal. Ripple responded in kind, revealing through Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty their intention to drop their own cross-appeal.
In a critical update, Ripple and the SEC jointly filed a motion in Manhattan federal court to lift the remaining injunction against Ripple and unlock the $125 million penalty—in which Ripple would retain $75 million and transfer $50 million to the SEC. This agreement would resolve outstanding appeals and avoid a drawn-out battle that could extend into 2026.
Legal commentators have weighed in on the matter. James Farrell noted that if the SEC supports both the settlement and the proposed court ruling, the outcome could come relatively quickly—though depending on the handling judge, the timeline may vary. For context, Judge J. Caprini took six months to issue an indicative ruling in a similar case, while Judge Parker took just three weeks in another instance.
Morgan also emphasized that delays up to this point were largely due to Ripple’s insistence on dissolving the injunction. He claimed the case could’ve been resolved earlier had this not been a sticking point.
Market Outlook
As the case edges toward resolution, XRP continues to gain momentum. The token recently traded between $2.00 and $2.20, experiencing a notable 8% increase in the past 24 hours. Market analysts predict XRP could climb to as high as $14 in the near future, depending on favorable legal and market developments.
Stay tuned as investors closely track the next move in this high-stakes legal drama—and the potential for a bullish breakout in XRP’s price.
Ripple legal timeline clarified
The legal journey of Ripple Labs in its battle against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has been anything but short, but according to legal expert Bill Morgan, the end might be closer than critics fear. Contrary to social media speculation and bearish sentiment about the lawsuit dragging into 2026, Morgan—well-known in the XRP community for his sharp legal insights—has dismissed those concerns, pointing to a clearly defined legal timeline that could wrap up far sooner.
At the center of the discussion is the joint motion recently filed by both Ripple and the SEC in federal court. This motion proposes a resolution on the remaining issues, including the final civil penalty and a permanent injunction. Morgan emphasized that unless Judge Analisa Torres unexpectedly rejects the motion—a move he deems “highly unlikely”—there’s no legal basis for assuming the case will stretch into 2026.
To understand the current legal landscape, it’s important to trace the key milestones:
- June 2023: Judge Torres issued a landmark ruling, stating that XRP sales to retail investors were not securities under U.S. law, while institutional sales did fall under securities classification.
- August 2024: Ripple was hit with a 5 million civil penalty tied to its institutional sales. The SEC initially filed an appeal against the ruling.
- March 2025: Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse confirmed that the SEC had withdrawn its appeal. Ripple also withdrew its cross-appeal, signaling a mutual move toward resolution.
- Mid-2025: Both parties filed a joint motion to dissolve the remaining injunction and settle on the penalty—Ripple would retain million and transfer million to the SEC.
Morgan points out that the withdrawal of appeals is a powerful indicator that both sides are ready to close this chapter. “There’s a common-sense path forward here,” he noted in a recent X post. “If Judge Torres accepts the joint motion, we’re looking at resolution in months, not years.”
He also made it clear that any further delays are unlikely to be procedural. The real bottleneck up to now, according to Morgan, has been Ripple’s insistence on dissolving the injunction entirely, a move that required careful legal negotiations and balancing regulatory concerns. With that issue now addressed in the joint motion, there’s little left to stall the process—unless, of course, the judge throws a legal curveball.
This clarification of the timeline has provided a much-needed dose of optimism for XRP holders and crypto investors who have weathered years of courtroom drama. While Morgan doesn’t guarantee a specific end date, his legal interpretation strongly suggests that 2026 is off the table—barring an unexpected judicial twist. For XRP enthusiasts, that’s a bullish signal in more ways than one.
Bill Morgan addresses delay rumors
In the thick of speculation swirling around the Ripple vs. SEC case, prominent legal voice and pro-XRP advocate Bill Morgan has stepped in to set the record straight. With crypto Twitter abuzz over the possibility of the lawsuit dragging into 2026, Morgan has called such fears “misplaced,” arguing that the procedural groundwork laid by both sides makes such a delay highly improbable.
Responding directly to community concerns, Morgan pointed out that the only realistic scenario in which the case could be prolonged would involve Judge Analisa Torres rejecting the joint motion filed by Ripple and the SEC. This motion—aimed at resolving the remaining disputes, including a proposed civil penalty and injunction—represents a rare moment of legal alignment between the two parties. According to Morgan, the judge siding against a mutually agreed-upon resolution would be “a legal anomaly.”
“There’s no incentive for either side to walk this back,” Morgan wrote in a recent post on X. “Both Ripple and the SEC have clearly signaled they want to put this behind them. The only wildcard is the judge, and even that seems unlikely to cause a derailment.”
While some crypto influencers have floated theories about hidden agendas or strategic delays, Morgan emphasized that these narratives overlook the legal process. He explained that the court has no interest in dragging out a case when both parties have agreed on the terms of closure—particularly when the appeals have already been withdrawn. “It’s not about drama anymore,” he quipped. “It’s about docket management—and judges don’t like clutter.”
The joint motion includes specific terms: Ripple would pay a million civil penalty to the SEC and retain million from the original penalty ruling. More importantly, it seeks to lift the remaining injunction against Ripple’s institutional sales, a sticking point that had previously prolonged negotiations. Morgan believes that with this issue now addressed, the court’s path to approval is relatively straightforward.
He further dismissed the notion that procedural hurdles could stall the resolution. “There’s no rocket docket here, but there’s also no red tape left,” Morgan said. “With no outstanding appeals and a joint request for resolution, the ball is squarely in the judge’s court—and the clock is ticking in weeks, not years.”
For XRP investors, Morgan’s analysis offers more than just legal clarity—it provides a psychological boost. The prolonged uncertainty of the lawsuit has weighed heavily on market sentiment, but with a respected legal voice suggesting the end is near, confidence appears to be returning. In fact, some traders interpret Morgan’s comments as a green light to re-enter the market with renewed optimism.
As the crypto space continues to mature, Morgan’s perspective underscores the importance of separating legal fact from social media fiction. While the internet thrives on drama and delay narratives, the courtroom operates on procedure and precedent. And if Morgan’s predictions hold true, XRP holders may soon be looking at a very different legal—and financial—landscape.
SEC case developments and implications
The unfolding legal developments in the Ripple vs. SEC case are not just courtroom theatrics—they have significant implications for both the crypto industry and broader regulatory landscape in the United States. The SEC’s initial lawsuit, filed in December 2020, accused Ripple Labs of conducting an unregistered securities offering through the sale of XRP, igniting a legal battle that has since become a foundational case in the debate over how digital assets should be classified and regulated.
While many expected a prolonged tug-of-war, recent actions suggest that both parties are steering toward an exit ramp. The SEC’s decision to withdraw its appeal in early 2025 marked a pivotal shift. In a regulatory environment often criticized for its lack of clarity, this move was interpreted as a tacit acknowledgment that continuing the battle could backfire—not just in court, but in the court of public opinion and investor confidence.
Ripple’s own strategic retreat—dropping its cross-appeal—further solidified the narrative that both sides are ready to close the book. According to legal analysts, this mutual de-escalation is rare in high-profile regulatory cases, especially one with industry-wide ramifications. By choosing to settle rather than escalate, Ripple and the SEC may be laying the groundwork for a more cooperative regulatory future for crypto companies operating in the U.S.
More concretely, the proposed breakdown of the 5 million civil penalty— million to be paid to the SEC, with Ripple retaining million—is seen as a compromise that allows both parties to claim partial victory. For the SEC, it demonstrates enforcement authority and regulatory oversight. For Ripple, it secures a path forward without admitting wrongdoing in retail XRP sales, which Judge Torres already deemed non-securities transactions.
Market watchers are also eyeing the proposed lifting of the injunction against institutional XRP sales. This could be a game-changer for Ripple’s business model, especially its On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) product, which relies on XRP to facilitate cross-border payments. If institutional sales are no longer restricted, Ripple could re-expand its U.S. operations and deepen its partnerships with financial institutions—something that’s been on pause since the lawsuit began.
From a regulatory standpoint, the Ripple case may set important precedents. While it doesn’t create binding legal doctrine outside of its jurisdiction, Judge Torres’ nuanced ruling—differentiating between retail and institutional sales—could influence how future crypto cases are approached. It’s a signal that courts may be willing to dissect token sales on a case-by-case basis, rather than applying a blanket securities classification to all digital assets.
Some experts even speculate that the Ripple case could pressure the U.S. Congress to expedite crypto-specific legislation. The lack of clear rules has left many blockchain projects operating in a gray zone, fearful of enforcement yet unsure of how to comply. Ripple’s partial win and the SEC’s willingness to settle may highlight the need for structured, forward-looking regulation that supports innovation without compromising investor protections.
For the XRP community and crypto investors at large, these implications are far from academic. A resolution in Ripple’s favor—especially one that allows the company to resume normal operations—could inject fresh optimism into the market. It would also reinforce the notion that not all tokens are securities by default, a key concern for developers, exchanges, and investors navigating the murky waters of U.S. crypto law.
In short, this isn’t just Ripple’s fight—it’s a bellwether for how the U.S. regulatory machine will engage with blockchain technology moving forward. And with the courtroom drama seemingly winding down, the next act could be one of growth, clarity, and renewed investor confidence.
Market reaction to legal updates
As the legal dust begins to settle in the Ripple vs. SEC saga, the crypto market is responding with cautious optimism—especially among XRP holders. The prospect of a resolution in the near term has already sparked renewed interest in XRP, with the token experiencing a notable uptick in both price and trading volume. Market sentiment has shifted from prolonged uncertainty to speculative bullishness, as investors begin to factor in the possibility of a legal win for Ripple and what that could mean for the broader digital asset space.
Following the news that both Ripple and the SEC filed a joint motion to resolve outstanding issues—including the 5 million civil penalty and the lifting of the injunction—the price of XRP surged by nearly 8% within 24 hours. While short-term volatility remains a feature of the crypto markets, this upward move is widely viewed as a reaction to the perception that Ripple is gaining the upper hand in its multi-year legal battle.
According to several market analysts, the resolution of the case could act as a powerful catalyst for XRP’s valuation. With legal clarity finally within reach, institutional investors who were previously sidelined may now feel more comfortable entering the market. This could significantly increase demand for XRP, particularly if Ripple is able to fully reintegrate its On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) services within the U.S. financial ecosystem.
- Price Predictions: Some bullish forecasts suggest XRP could climb to , , or even in the event of a favorable ruling and subsequent institutional adoption. While these figures may seem ambitious, they are grounded in historical data showing how XRP has reacted to major legal and regulatory milestones.
- Investor Sentiment: Social media platforms and crypto forums are buzzing with renewed enthusiasm for XRP. Hashtags like #XRPArmy and #RelistXRP are once again trending, reflecting growing community confidence.
- Exchange Activity: Trading volumes on major exchanges such as Binance, Coinbase, and Kraken have surged, with XRP consistently ranking among the top traded assets by volume in recent weeks.
- Whale Movements: On-chain data reveals increased activity among large XRP wallets, commonly referred to as “whales.” These high-net-worth investors appear to be accumulating XRP in anticipation of a favorable legal outcome.
Beyond price speculation, the implications for XRP’s utility are also gaining attention. If the injunction against institutional sales is lifted, Ripple could rapidly scale its partnerships with banks and remittance providers. This would enhance the real-world use case of XRP as a bridge currency for cross-border payments—a key component of Ripple’s long-term vision.
Notably, several fintech firms have already signaled interest in reigniting partnerships with Ripple should the legal hurdles be cleared. This could reignite growth in RippleNet and expand the reach of ODL, particularly in the U.S. market where regulatory uncertainty has stifled innovation. With compliance no longer a looming concern, Ripple would be well-positioned to compete with traditional financial infrastructure providers.
Additionally, broader market implications are being closely watched. A decisive Ripple win could set a precedent that benefits other crypto projects currently operating in regulatory limbo. That’s why the XRP rally isn’t just about Ripple—it’s seen as a proxy for the entire crypto sector’s fight for legitimacy and clarity in the United States.
In the meantime, traders are keeping a close eye on Judge Torres’ next move. A swift approval of the joint motion could send XRP soaring, while any unexpected delay might trigger short-term corrections. Nevertheless, with legal experts like Bill Morgan projecting an end in sight, the overall tone in the market has shifted toward optimism. And in crypto, sentiment can be just as powerful as fundamentals.