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📉 XRP Price Analysis: Whale Selling Slows, Bullish Bets Rise — Crucial Support and Resistance in Focus
– XRP struggles to recover after May highs, facing weak trading interest and declining Chaikin Money Flow (CMF).
– Long positions have surged, with trading volume jumping 44% in just 24 hours — a sign of potential reversal?
Ripple’s XRP is experiencing renewed bearish pressure, dipping 1.45% today to trade at $2.14. Throughout June, the digital asset has been unable to regain momentum after its impressive May peak of $2.65. A combination of profit-taking and subdued buying interest has weighed heavily on price action.
After reaching highs not seen since early 2024, XRP has entered a downward trajectory, testing key support zones established at the start of the year. This correction comes amid diminishing enthusiasm from speculative and retail traders.
📊 Whales Reduce Selling, But Risk Remains
Recent on-chain data from analytics provider Glassnode sheds light on the recent sell-off. Wallets that had gained over 300% — likely early investors from XRP’s pre-November breakout — began offloading holdings at the start of June. Daily realized profits peaked at $68.8 million (on a 7-day average), marking the highest activity from long-term holders in several months.
While this selling pressure has since cooled, analysts remain wary. The brief spike in volume earlier this month disrupted an otherwise quiet trend seen since March, indicating that long-term investors may still be eyeing exit points as volatility returns.
📉 Declining CMF and Bearish Volume Point to Caution
Technically, XRP’s outlook has weakened in recent weeks. The Chaikin Money Flow indicator, measuring institutional and retail capital inflows, is trending downward and approaching negative territory — a potential signal of continued selling pressure. If momentum deteriorates further, XRP risks falling below the psychological $2 barrier.
Adding to concerns, overall trading volume has been steadily declining across the last few months. This prolonged inactivity has effectively kept XRP range-bound for more than six months, frustrating bulls and limiting upside breakout potential.
📈 Are Traders Betting on a Reversal?
Despite some technical fragility, the derivatives market shows signs of renewed optimism. Data from Coinglass indicates that the long/short ratio has climbed to 1.035 — its highest reading in nearly a month. This coincided with a 44% spike in trading volume in just 24 hours, suggesting that some market participants are positioning for a bounce.
If this sentiment gains traction, it could destabilize short positions and create a springboard for a medium-term recovery.
📌 Key Levels to Watch: $2.09 Support and $2.37 Resistance
Currently, XRP is testing critical support near the $2.09 level. This area, extending down to around $1.99, has acted as a solid floor since January. A decisive breakdown of this zone could accelerate bearish momentum, potentially dragging the token down to $1.80 or even $1.61 — levels not seen in several months.
On the flip side, bulls could regain the upper hand with a strong rebound from current support. A surge in buy-side volume — similar to the rally XRP experienced in April — might shake out weak hands and lay the foundation for a new run-up.
The next significant resistance stands at the 200-day simple moving average of $2.37. A break above this level would be essential to shift overall market sentiment. If achieved, it might prompt a wave of short covering, pushing XRP back into the $2.73 to $2.83 resistance band.
📊 In Summary
XRP faces heightened uncertainty as it hovers near key support. With whale activity shrinking and speculative traders increasing their long exposure, the coming days will be crucial in determining whether the token breaks down or mounts a comeback. Keep an eye on $2.09 and $2.37 — they may shape XRP’s next big move.
Whale activity shows signs of decline
After months of aggressive accumulation and distribution, recent blockchain data indicates that the once-dominant whale activity surrounding XRP is beginning to cool. Large holders—wallets with substantial XRP balances—who had previously driven significant price moves through their high-volume transactions, are now showing signs of restraint. According to Glassnode’s on-chain metrics, daily realized profits from top-tier wallets peaked earlier this month at around .8 million on a 7-day average, suggesting that whales were capitalizing on XRP’s earlier rally. However, since that spike, realized profits have tapered off, hinting at a pause in major sell-offs.
This slowdown in whale-driven selling pressure may offer a breather for XRP bulls. Historically, heavy whale dumping has coincided with sharp price corrections, dampening broader market sentiment. The recent decline in such activity could reduce downward momentum and create a more neutral playing field for price discovery. While this doesn’t guarantee an immediate reversal, the easing of large-scale exits provides a more stable backdrop for the market to assess XRP’s next move.
Notably, this shift comes after XRP hit highs of .65 in May—levels not seen since early 2024. Many of the whales now reducing activity were likely early movers who accumulated during XRP’s pre-November breakout, reaping returns of over 300%. Their recent profit-taking appears to have run its course, at least for now, reducing the likelihood of further major dumps in the near term.
Despite the cooling whale pressure, caution remains warranted. The brief spike in on-chain volume at the start of June disrupted a relatively dormant trend that had persisted since March. This suggests that some large holders are still watching the market closely, potentially waiting for another opportunity to offload if volatility picks back up. The market’s current fragility means that even a moderate uptick in whale activity could have an outsized impact on price, especially if retail sentiment remains weak.
For investors tracking smart money behavior, this deceleration in whale exits might be a subtle but meaningful signal. While not an outright bullish indicator, it reduces one of the primary sources of recent selling pressure, potentially paving the way for more organic price movements driven by retail and institutional flows.
In essence, while whales aren’t entirely out of the picture, their recent retreat could mark a transition phase for XRP. For savvy traders, this is a moment to monitor closely—because when the big fish stop splashing, the ripples can tell a story of their own.
Long positions gain momentum among traders
While whale activity takes a breather, XRP’s derivatives landscape is lighting up with bullish intent. According to fresh data from Coinglass, the long/short ratio has tipped in favor of bulls, climbing to 1.035—the highest seen in nearly a month. This metric, which gauges the proportion of traders betting on price increases versus declines, suggests that sentiment among leveraged traders is shifting toward optimism.
What’s especially notable is the timing. This uptick in long positions coincides with a 44% surge in trading volume over a 24-hour window, hinting at a wave of leveraged entries potentially fueled by expectations of a near-term rebound. In a market that’s been largely range-bound and directionless for weeks, this sudden injection of speculative energy could be the spark XRP needs to attempt a breakout—or at least stave off further losses.
- Long/Short Ratio: At 1.035, the ratio reflects a growing majority of traders leaning bullish.
- Volume Spike: A 44% increase in 24-hour trading volume suggests renewed interest and capital inflow.
- Funding Rates: Positive funding rates across major exchanges indicate that long positions are paying to keep their trades open—a sign that bullish sentiment is prevailing in the short term.
From a behavioral finance perspective, this kind of sentiment shift often precedes price volatility. When a large portion of the market leans heavily in one direction, it can create the conditions for either a powerful continuation or a sharp correction—especially if liquidity is thin. For XRP, which has been trading in a tight range between .09 and .37, the current positioning could amplify any move outside this zone.
It’s also worth noting that this wave of long positions isn’t just coming from retail traders. Open interest on institutional-grade platforms like Binance Futures and Bybit has also shown a measurable increase. This suggests that some professional traders may be taking calculated bets on XRP’s upside potential, possibly anticipating a short squeeze or a broader crypto market rally.
That said, the market is still walking a tightrope. While the increase in longs is promising for bulls, it also raises the stakes. If XRP fails to hold above key support or gets rejected at resistance, these leveraged positions could unwind quickly, triggering a cascade of liquidations that exacerbates downside pressure.
For investors and traders alike, this is a classic “watch the tape” moment. The influx of long positions signals confidence—but in crypto, confidence can be fleeting. Whether this is the start of a trend reversal or just a speculative blip will depend on how price action unfolds at the key levels ahead.
Key support and resistance levels for XRP
With XRP hovering in a precarious zone, technical traders are zeroing in on the most critical price levels that could dictate the token’s next major move. After slipping from the .65 high reached in May, XRP has struggled to establish a convincing floor, making support and resistance levels more relevant than ever for short-term and swing traders.
Currently, the digital asset is testing a pivotal support range between .09 and .99. This band has historically acted as a resilient demand zone, absorbing bearish pressure multiple times since January. A breakdown below this range could invite a sharper correction, with potential downside targets at .80 and .61—both of which served as consolidation zones during XRP’s earlier 2024 rally.
- Immediate Support: .09 – This level is being closely watched as the first line of defense. A daily candle close below it may trigger further selling.
- Secondary Support: .99 – If .09 fails, .99 is the next buffer. Losing this level could open the door to a steeper fall toward .80.
- Deeper Downside Risk: .61 – This level marked a major pivot during XRP’s Q1 breakout and could serve as a magnet if bearish momentum accelerates.
On the upside, the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at .37 remains the most notable resistance barrier. This technical ceiling has capped multiple rally attempts over the past month, and reclaiming it would be a strong signal that bulls are regaining control. A breakout above .37 could catalyze a short squeeze, forcing sidelined buyers and risk-averse traders to re-enter the market.
- Primary Resistance: .37 (200-day SMA) – A close above this level could shift sentiment and inject bullish momentum.
- Breakout Target Zone: .73 to .83 – This range acted as resistance during April’s rally and could be the next battleground if .37 is breached.
Traders should also keep an eye on volume and momentum indicators as price approaches these key levels. A price move backed by strong volume typically carries more conviction. Conversely, if XRP attempts a breakout or breakdown on weak volume, the move may lack staying power and could reverse quickly.
Another technical factor worth noting is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is currently hovering near the neutral 50 mark. This suggests that XRP is neither overbought nor oversold, giving it room to swing in either direction depending on how the broader market evolves. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), however, continues to trend downward, indicating that capital inflows remain tepid—an obstacle that bulls must overcome to sustain any meaningful rally.
In short, XRP is at a technical crossroads. The .09–.99 support zone is a make-or-break area, while .37 stands as the gateway to a more optimistic outlook. Until one of these thresholds is clearly breached, expect choppy conditions and range-bound trading. For investors and traders alike, this is a textbook environment for patience, precision, and tight risk management.
Market sentiment and potential price scenarios
As XRP teeters near critical technical thresholds, market sentiment is split between cautious optimism and lingering skepticism. On one hand, the cooling of whale activity and the surge in long positions suggest a potential shift in momentum. On the other hand, persistent weakness in capital inflows and a lackluster Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) reading hint that any bullish breakout may face headwinds unless backed by a sustained influx of buying pressure.
Sentiment across crypto social channels and trading forums has turned more speculative, with many traders eyeing XRP as a potential breakout candidate—though few are committing with conviction. According to Santiment’s social volume metrics, XRP-related chatter has increased marginally, often a precursor to heightened volatility. However, without a corresponding spike in on-chain activity or whale accumulation, this buzz may remain just that—noise without substance.
Market dynamics are also being shaped by macro-level crypto trends. Bitcoin dominance has been rising, drawing liquidity away from altcoins like XRP. If this trend continues, it could further dampen XRP’s ability to mount a sustained rally, unless Ripple-related catalysts or ecosystem developments provide a narrative boost.
Looking ahead, two primary scenarios are emerging:
- Scenario 1: Bullish Reversal – If XRP manages to defend the .09 support level and volume begins to pick up, the next logical move would be a retest of .37. A successful breakout above this resistance could ignite a short squeeze, especially considering the high number of leveraged short positions accumulated over recent weeks. In this case, XRP could quickly target the .73–.83 range, where previous rallies lost steam in April.
- Scenario 2: Breakdown and Consolidation – Should XRP fail to hold .09 and dip below .99 with conviction, the market could see a swift correction toward .80 or even .61. This would likely flush out weak hands and reset the market for a fresh accumulation phase. In this scenario, XRP might enter a prolonged consolidation period, trading sideways as it rebuilds investor confidence.
From a sentiment-driven trading perspective, the current environment is ripe for volatility. The buildup of long positions indicates that traders are bracing for a move—but whether that move is to the upside or downside will depend heavily on how XRP reacts at its current inflection point. A decisive close above .37 would likely tilt sentiment sharply bullish, while a breakdown below .99 would reinforce bearish bias and potentially trigger panic selling.
Adding to the complexity is the broader regulatory backdrop. As Ripple continues to navigate its legal challenges with the SEC, any updates—positive or negative—could instantly swing sentiment and override technical signals. For this reason, traders should remain nimble and consider both fundamental narratives and technical levels when formulating positions.
Ultimately, XRP’s market sentiment is a cocktail of hope, hesitation, and high-stakes speculation. With leveraged traders taking bold bets and whales momentarily stepping back, the stage is set for a decisive move. Whether that move brings relief or regret will soon become clear—but one thing’s certain: the next few sessions will be pivotal for XRP’s short-term trajectory.